Tus nqi npaum li cas nyob rau hauv txawv teb chaws

2024 Tus sau: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2024-01-16 18:48

Tus nqi tseem ceeb yog qhov feem pua ntawm lub teb chaws lub tsev txhab nyiaj nruab nrab qiv nyiaj rau cov tuam txhab lag luam. Vim li cas qhov feem pua ntawm cov txiaj ntsig tsis zoo nyob rau hauv lub teb chaws ntawm "Golden Billion", thiab nyob rau hauv lub teb chaws ntawm periphery ntawm lub ntiaj teb capitalism, uas Russia belongs, yuav siv sij hawm qhov siab tshaj plaws tus nqi?

Rau qee lub sijhawm tam sim no, lo lus "tus nqi tseem ceeb" tau tshwm sim hauv cov xov xwm ntawm cov ntawv xov xwm tshaj tawm. Peb tab tom tham txog tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm US Federal Reserve System. FRS tus nqi tau nyob hauv thaj tsam ntawm 0-0.25% rau ntau xyoo. Ntawm tus nqi no, cov nyiaj hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev lag luam hloov tawm yuav luag dawb. Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis, Fed tau ze rau nce tus nqi, tab sis tseem tsis tau. Thaum kawg, thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 16, 2015, thawj zaug hauv ntau tshaj cuaj xyoo, Tebchaws Asmeskas Tsoom Fwv Tebchaws Reserve tau nce tus nqi los ntawm 0.25 feem pua cov ntsiab lus.

Thaum kawg ntawm lub Plaub Hlis 2016, ntawm lub rooj sib tham ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Board muaj lwm qhov kev sib tham txog qhov teeb meem ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi, tab sis nws tau tawm ntawm tib theem ntawm 0.25-0.50%. Los ntawm txoj kev, Donald Trump, thaum lub sij hawm nws kev xaiv tsa kev xaiv tsa, tau mloog rau qhov tseeb tias qhov nce ntawm Fed tus nqi tseem ceeb tuaj yeem ua rau Asmeskas mus rau qhov tsis raug. IMF Tus Thawj Coj Tus Thawj Coj Christine Lagarde kuj ntshai qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov nce ntxiv, tab sis nws hais tias nws tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb poob.

Hauv Lavxias, nrog rau lo lus "tus nqi tseem ceeb", cov ntsiab lus "lub hom phiaj" thiab "tus nqi pib" yog siv los ua cov lus sib piv. Nyob rau hauv luv luv, qhov no yog hais txog ib tug tej yam benchmark teem los ntawm lub teb chaws lub central bank. Raws li nws, cov neeg koom hauv kev sib raug zoo nyiaj txiag teeb tsa lawv tus kheej cov paj laum ntawm cov nyiaj qiv, tso nyiaj, thiab kev nyab xeeb. Hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm International Monetary Fund (IMF), qhov ntsuas no yog hu ua Central bank policy rate (CBPR). Lus - "txoj cai paj laum ntawm lub hauv paus bank." Txawm li cas los xij, tsis muaj qhov sib xws hauv kev nkag siab tias "tus nqi tseem ceeb" yog dab tsi, thiab, raws li, tsis muaj qhov sib piv tag nrho ntawm CBPR ntsuas ntawm cov teb chaws. Hauv qee lub tebchaws, "tus nqi tseem ceeb" coincides nrog "tus nqi luv", "refinancing rate", "repo rate", thiab lwm yam.

Dab tsi yog qhov Fed tus nqi tseem ceeb? Hauv lub vev xaib ntawm lub koom haum no, peb nyeem tias qhov no yog tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los. Cov tsev txhab nyiaj Asmeskas yuav tsum khaws ib feem ntawm lawv cov nyiaj khaws tseg hauv cov nyiaj hauv nruab nrab ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve - qhov no yog hu ua tsoomfwv cov nyiaj. Lawv qhov ntim hloov pauv txhua hnub, thiab cov tsev txhab nyiaj nrog cov nyiaj seem tshuav tuaj yeem muab cov nyiaj seem no mus rau cov tsev txhab nyiaj ib ntus, theem ntawm cov nyiaj khaws cia uas tau poob qis dua qhov qauv. Tus nqi ntawm cov tsev txhab nyiaj qiv yog tus nqi tseem ceeb, lossis tsoomfwv cov nyiaj khaws cia. Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve's 12-tus tswv cuab Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg Neeg Pov Hwm pov npav los tsom rau tsoomfwv cov nyiaj khaws cia raws li kev lag luam. Cia kuv ceeb toom koj ib zaug ntxiv tias txij lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2008 tus nqi tau nyob hauv thaj tsam ntawm 0-0.25%. Tus nqi tiag tiag ntawm tus nqi txiav txim siab txhua hnub ntawm lub sijhawm no hloov ntawm 0.07% mus rau 0.22%. Yeej tsis tau muaj tus nqi qis li no, txawm tias thaum lub xyoo ntawm kev kub ntxhov ntawm kev lag luam ntawm 30s ntawm lub xyoo pua nees nkaum. Tsoom fwv teb chaws cov nyiaj cia tam sim no zoo li pub dawb. Raws li FRS cov thawj coj, qhov no yuav tsum tau pab cov tsev txhab nyiaj thiab tag nrho Asmeskas kev lag luam kom kov yeej qhov tshwm sim ntawm 2007-2009 nyiaj txiag teebmeem. Rau kev sib piv: Lub Rau Hli 2006, Fed tus nqi tseem ceeb tom qab 17 sib law liag nce (tshaj li ob xyoos) mus txog qib siab tshaj plaws ntawm 5.25%. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov no yog deb ntawm cov ntaub ntawv. Qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm tus nqi tau sau tseg nyob rau hauv 1980-1981, thaum Paul Volcker coj tus thawj coj ntawm Fed thiab America pib hloov mus rau "Reaganomics" rails. Tom qab ntawd tus nqi nce mus rau 20%.

Txawm hais tias tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los tsuas yog siv rau cov nyiaj qiv luv luv ntawm cov tsev txhab nyiaj, nws yog tus nqi hauv paus uas txiav txim siab tus nqi qiv nyiaj rau cov lag luam thiab cov tib neeg. Hauv Asmeskas kev ua lag luam hauv tuam txhab, lub tswv yim ntawm "tus nqi nyiam" yog siv dav, uas yog muab los ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam rau cov neeg siv khoom zoo tshaj plaws. Nws yog siv los txiav txim siab cov paj laum ntawm cov nyiaj qiv tsheb, qiv nyiaj rau kev lag luam me thiab cov kab qiv nyiaj ruaj ntseg los ntawm cov vaj tsev nyob, credit cards. Kev lig kev cai, tus nqi nyiam tau yog peb feem pua cov ntsiab lus siab dua li tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los, thiab cov tsev txhab nyiaj yuav luag tau txais (nrog qee qhov kev zam) ua raws li Fed cov kev hloov pauv. Thaum tsoomfwv cov peev nyiaj tau nce los ntawm 0.25 feem pua cov ntsiab lus nyob rau lub Rau Hli 2006, ntau lub tsev txhab nyiaj tau tsa lawv tus nqi nyiam los ntawm tib tus nqi. Thiab thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2008 tus nqi tau txo qis los ntawm 0.75 feem pua cov ntsiab lus, cov tsev txhab nyiaj tau txo qis tus nqi nyiam los ntawm 4 mus rau 3.25%. Nws nyob ntawm theem no raws nraim 7 xyoo. Piv txwv li, pib ntawm lub xyoo tshiab, Asmeskas cov tsev txhab nyiaj yuav teeb tsa lawv tus nqi nyiam ntawm 3.50%. Txawm tias qhov nce ntawm cov paj laum ntawm cov nyiaj qiv tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam hauv Tebchaws Meskas. Tag nrho cov nuj nqis ntiag tug ntawm cov neeg Asmeskas ntawm cov nyiaj qiv yog tam sim no 17 trillion. las, nrog 82% - nqi tsev, thiab yuav luag 8% - cov nuj nqis ntawm cov tub ntxhais kawm qiv. Qhov seem yog credit card nuj nqis, tsheb thiab cov neeg siv khoom qiv, thiab lwm yam. Kev siv nyiaj ntawm Asmeskas niaj hnub no yog 2, 5-3 trillion. nyiaj daus las ib xyoos dhau los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tiag. Muaj kev hem thawj tsis yog tsuas yog them rov qab xwb, tab sis txawm tias kev pabcuam thiab rov qab them cov nuj nqis loj. Ib daim duab tsis txaus ntshai yog tshwm sim hais txog kev lag luam nuj nqis ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam.

Fed tus nqi tseem ceeb piv rau lwm lub tebchaws li cas? IMF tab tom sim ua qhov kev sib piv no rau kwv yees li rau kaum lub tebchaws. Kev tshuaj xyuas nyiaj txiag suav nrog ob lub tebchaws sab hnub poob ("golden billion") thiab thaj chaw ntawm ntiaj teb kev peev txheej (PMC). Cov no yog cov teb chaws tsim kho ntawm Asia, Africa, Latin America, nrog rau cov xeev tshiab uas tau tshwm sim hauv qhov chaw tom qab-Soviet. Daim duab rau ob pawg ntawm lub teb chaws txawv heev. Hauv qab no yog cov lus rau ob pawg ntawm lub teb chaws, muab tso ua ke raws li kev tshawb fawb ntawm IMF rau lub sijhawm 2007-2014.

Tab. ib.

Cov nqi tseem ceeb ntawm cov thawj coj hauv tebchaws Western nyob rau lub sijhawm 2007-2014 (tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo,%)

Lub teb chaws	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Teb chaws USA	4, 25	0, 13	0, 13	0, 13	0, 13	0, 13	0, 13	0, 13
Cov teb chaws Europe	4, 00	2, 50	1, 00	1, 00	1, 00	0, 75	0, 25	0, 05
Tebchaws Askiv	5, 50	2, 00	0, 50	0, 50	0, 50	0, 50	0, 50	0, 50
Canada	4, 25	1, 50	0, 25	1, 00	1, 00	1, 25	1, 25	1, 25
Switzerland	3, 25	1, 00	0, 75	0, 75	0, 25	0, 25	0, 25	0, 25
Sweden	3, 50	2, 00	0, 50	0, 50	1, 91	1, 14	0, 75	0, 00
Denmark	4, 00	3, 50	1, 00	0, 75	0, 75	0, 00	0, 00	0, 00

Cov ntaub ntawv nyob rau hauv Table 1 qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv lub economically tsim lub teb chaws ntawm lub sab hnub poob nyob rau hauv lub chav kawm ntawm yim xyoo (pib los ntawm 2007), muaj ib tug tsis tu ncua ntawm cov nyiaj paj hauv central bank. Cov txheej txheem mus kom deb li deb hais tias nyob rau hauv ob lub teb chaws (Denmark thiab Sweden) tus nqi tau los ua xoom, i.e. Central bank yeej tau pib qiv nyiaj rau cov tuam txhab lag luam tsis pub dawb. Thiab nyob rau hauv lub teb chaws eurozone, tus nqi nyob rau hauv 2014 los ze rau xoom.

Kev saib xyuas yog kos rau xws li ib tug feature ntawm cov paj laum txoj cai ntawm lub hauv paus tsev txhab nyiaj ntawm lub teb chaws tsim, raws li cov stability ntawm tus nqi tseem ceeb. Piv txwv li, qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm US Federal Reserve System tau khaws cia nyob rau tib theem rau yim xyoo - los ntawm 2008 txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2015. Lub txhab nyiaj ntawm Askiv tau khaws cov paj laum nyob rau tib theem rau yuav luag xya xyoo (txij li xyoo 2009).

Hauv pab pawg ntawm cov teb chaws tsim, feem ntau cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau khaws cov nqi ntawm ib theem tsis tshaj 1%. Cov paj laum siab tshaj plaws hauv pab pawg no tau sau tseg hauv Australia (2, 50%) thiab New Zealand (3, 50%).

Tab. 2.

Cov nqi tseem ceeb ntawm qee lub tebchaws ntawm thaj tsam ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev peev txheej hauv lub sijhawm 2007-2014. (tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo,%)

Lub teb chaws	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Congo	22, 50	40, 00	70, 00	22, 00	20, 00	4, 00	2, 00	2, 00
Ghana	13, 50	17, 00	18, 00	13, 50	12, 50	15, 00	16, 00	21, 00
Chile	6, 00	8, 25	0, 50	3, 12	5, 25	5, 00	4, 50	3, 00
Brazil	11, 25	13, 75	8, 75	10, 75	11, 00	7, 25	10, 00	11, 75
Indonesia	8, 00	9, 25	6, 50	6, 50	6, 00	5, 75	7, 50	7, 75
Belarus	10, 00	12, 00	13, 50	10, 50	45, 00	30, 00	23, 50	20, 00
Kazakhstan	11, 00	10, 50	7, 00	7, 50	5, 50	5, 50	5, 50	5, 50

Peb saib ib daim duab sib txawv kiag li nyob rau hauv pab pawg ntawm lub teb chaws nyob rau hauv periphery ntawm lub ntiaj teb no capitalism. Hauv ntau lub tebchaws, qhov nruab nrab cov paj laum txhua xyoo ntawm cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab qee zaum ntsuas ob tus lej. Cov ntaub ntawv tus nqi tau mus txog hauv Congo, qhov twg xyoo 2010 tus lej yog 70%. Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub tebchaws no tau koom nrog kev qiv nyiaj rau cov tsev txhab nyiaj ntawm tus paj laum uas qhib tau. Qhov nruab nrab cov paj laum ntawm lub teb chaws ntawm periphery ntawm lub ntiaj teb capitalism yog ntau tshaj li ib tug txiav txim ntawm magnitude siab tshaj qhov nruab nrab paj paj ntawm lub teb chaws ntawm lub "golden billion".

Lwm qhov tshwj xeeb ntawm PMK lub teb chaws yog qhov hloov pauv ntawm cov paj laum. Hauv ib xyoos, tej zaum yuav muaj qhov nce siab lossis poob hauv cov nqi. Piv txwv li, nyob rau hauv lub koom pheej ntawm Belarus nyob rau hauv 2010 qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo tus nqi yog 10, 50% (uas nyob rau hauv nws tus kheej yog tus nqi siab heev), thiab xyoo tom ntej nws dhia mus rau 45%, uas yog, ntau tshaj 4 zaug. Thiab hauv Congo, ntawm qhov tsis sib xws, hauv 2011-2012. muaj qhov txo qis hauv cov paj laum los ntawm 20 mus rau 4%, uas yog, tsib zaug. Los ntawm nthuav tawm hauv lub rooj. Hauv xya lub tebchaws, tus paj laum ruaj khov tshaj plaws yog nyob hauv Chile. Txawm hais tias nyob hauv lub tebchaws no xyoo 2008-2009. tau muaj kev hloov pauv hloov pauv ntawm qib 8.5 mus rau 0.5%, thiab xyoo tom ntej tau nce mus rau 3.12%.

Tab. 3.

Kev qeb duas ntawm cov teb chaws nrog tus nqi qis tshaj plaws (2014)

Qhov chaw, tsis muaj.	Lub teb chaws	Tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo,%
1-2	Denmark	0
1-2	Sweden	0
3	Bulgaria	0, 02
4	Cov teb chaws Europe	0, 05
5	Teb chaws USA	0, 13
6-8	Switzerland	0, 25
6-8	Israel	0, 25
6-8	Saudi Arabia	0, 25
9-10	Tebchaws Askiv	0, 50
9-10	Bahrain	0, 50

Rooj 3 qhia lub teb chaws nrog cov paj laum tsawg kawg nkaus. Nrog qee qhov kev zam, cov no yog lub teb chaws ntawm "golden billion". Cov pab pawg thawj coj yeej tsis yog 10 lub tebchaws, tab sis 28, txij li lub tebchaws eurozone suav nrog 19 lub tebchaws. Yog li, nyob rau hauv cov pab pawg neeg ntawm cov thawj coj los ntawm 28 lub teb chaws, 24 belongs rau lub "golden billion".

Lwm lub tebchaws los ntawm pawg thawj coj yog Bulgaria, Israel, Saudi Arabia thiab Bahrain. Cov paj laum yog qhov txawv txav qis hauv Bulgaria, yog ib lub tebchaws uas muaj kev lag luam rov qab tshaj plaws hauv Tebchaws Europe. Ntxiv mus, qhov "anomaly" tshwm sim rov qab rau xyoo 2008-2009, thaum cov nqi poob ntawm 5.77 mus rau 0.55, thiab ib xyoos tom qab - rau 0.18%. Raws li rau cov neeg Ixayees, nws cov paj laum nyob rau xyoo dhau los tau muab piv rau cov nqi ntawm cov tebchaws nyob sab Europe (lawv nyob hauv thaj tsam ntawm 1, 0-2, 5%). Saudi Arabia thiab Bahrain yog lub teb chaws tsim roj uas cov paj laum tau qis dua.

Peb tau nthuav tawm cov duab sib piv ntawm cov paj laum rau xyoo 2014. Thiab ntawm no yog daim duab zoo li qhov kawg ntawm 2015: ECB - 0.05% (tus nqi pib rov qab); National Bank of Denmark - 0, 50% (tus nqi ntawm cov nyiaj txiag tsis txaus); Swiss National Bank - 0.05% (tus nqi qiv). Thiab ntawm Central Bank ntawm Sweden, REPO kev ua haujlwm tau txais tus nqi tsis zoo - rho tawm 0.35%. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab tshaj plaws, cov paj laum tseem ceeb hauv Denmark twb tau nqis mus rau rho tawm 0.65%. Kev hloov pauv ntawm cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab mus rau thaj tsam rho tawm yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov tseeb tias cov peev txheej qub nrog nws cov paj hauv txhab nyiaj tau dhau los ua ib qho ntawm yav dhau los.

Tab. 4.

Kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm lub teb chaws nrog tus nqi tseem ceeb tshaj plaws (2014).

Qhov chaw, tsis muaj.	Lub teb chaws	Tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo,%
1	Gambia	22, 00
2	Ghana	21, 00
3	Republic of Belarus	20, 00
4	Tajikistan	18, 70
5	Lavxias teb sab Federation	17, 00
6	Suriname	12, 50
7-8	Mongolia	12, 00
7-8	Sao Tome thiab Principe	12, 00
9	Brazil	11, 75
10	Belize	11, 00

Rooj 4 nthuav qhia qhov qeb duas ntawm 10 lub teb chaws nrog cov paj laum siab tshaj plaws. Qee lub tebchaws no tau nyob rau saum 10 xyoo dhau los. Ntawm cov "cov thawj coj" mus tas li yog Ghana, koom pheej ntawm Belarus, Tajikistan. Yog li ntawd, lub koom pheej ntawm Belarus nyob rau hauv 2007 ranked 13th nyob rau hauv qeb. Xyoo tom ntej: 2008 - 10th, 2009 - 5th, 2010 - 1st, 2011 - 1st, 2012 - 1st, 2013 - 1- e.

Russia kuj tseem poob rau hauv kaum sab saum toj "cov ntaub ntawv tuav" raws li cov paj laum. Thaum Lub Plaub Hlis 29, 2016 (ob hnub tom qab lub rooj sib tham Fed, uas tus nqi tseem ceeb tsis hloov pauv), Central Bank of Russia kuj tau txiav txim siab tawm nws tus nqi ntawm qib dhau los ntawm 11%. Russia ntawm qhov ntsuas no yog tam sim no nyob rau theem ntawm Belize thiab me ntsis qis dua qib ntawm Brazil hauv 2014. Lub Central Bank ntawm Russia ib ntus ua cov lus hais txog kev txo qis hauv cov paj, tab sis qhov no tsis tshwm sim. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, kev lag luam Lavxias raug kev txom nyem los ntawm kev tsis txaus ntseeg nyiaj txiag.

Nrog ob tus lej tseem ceeb ntawm cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab, cov paj laum ntawm cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj hauv tuam txhab rau cov tib neeg thiab cov chaw raug cai hauv cov teb chaws ntawm thaj tsam ntawm ntiaj teb kev peev txheej (PMC) hloov mus rau qhov tsis txaus ntseeg. Lawv txwv cov pejxeem thiab kev lag luam, thawb lub tebchaws PMK kom nyiam cov peev thiab qiv nyiaj txawv teb chaws. Thaum kawg, muaj kev nce ntxiv ntawm cov nuj nqis sab nraud thiab nce kev vam meej ntawm IGC lub teb chaws ntawm cov teb chaws ntawm "kub billion" nrog lawv cov pheej yig lossis yuav luag dawb nyiaj.

Saib kuj: Valentin Katasonov nyob rau hauv Lavxias teb sab Assembly (2016)

Vim li cas tag nrho lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam yog 100% duab ntxoov ntxoo, thiab yog vim li cas tsis muaj kev lag luam hauv nws, supposedly ib lub lag luam? Yuav ua li cas lwm txoj kev lag luam nyob rau hauv Russia dais lub npe code "Noah's Ark"? Vim li cas Islamic banking yog kev dag thiab hype? Cov neeg zoo tib yam yuav tsum ua li cas thaum muaj kev kub ntxhov?