Arthur Clarke: tus kws sau ntawv tseeb uas tau kwv yees lub neej yav tom ntej

2024 Tus sau: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2023-12-16 16:06

British kws tshawb fawb, inventor, futurist, explorer thiab science ntawv tseeb kws sau ntawv Arthur Clarke yog lub npe hu rau "kev kwv yees" ntawm lub neej yav tom ntej, uas nws tau txais lub npe menyuam yaus "Tus Yaj Saub ntawm lub hnub nyoog Space". Nws tau qhia txog lub zeem muag ntawm lub neej yav tom ntej uas ua rau nws xav tsis thoob nws cov neeg kawm, nrog rau cov tswv yim hais txog cov thev naus laus zis uas tib neeg yuav vam khom. Tab sis Clark cov yaj saub yog toog pom tseeb npaum li cas?

Daim ntawv qhia yav tom ntej

Xyoo 1968, lub npe ntawm Arthur Clarke tau los ua ib lub npe tsev neeg ua tsaug rau qhov tso tawm ntawm zaj yeeb yaj kiab 2001: A Space Odyssey. Cov yeeb yaj kiab kuj tseem muaj ntau yam ntawm Clark qhov kev kwv yees txog yav tom ntej ntawm kev mus ncig hauv qhov chaw, uas tau ua tiav los ntawm cov neeg ua yeeb yaj kiab thiab cov kws kos duab. Thiab phau ntawv suav nrog Clark's "Daim Ntawv Qhia Txog Yav Tom Ntej" - ib daim duab ntawm nws qhov kev kwv yees txog 2100.

Piv txwv li, nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev tshawb nrhiav chaw, Clark kwv yees spaceships, lub hli tsaws thiab chaw soj nstuam nyob rau hauv qhov chaw los ntawm nruab nrab-70s. Nyob rau xyoo 1980 thiab 1990, nws tau kwv yees tias tib neeg yuav tsaws rau Mars (thiab lwm lub ntiaj teb), ua raws li cov cheeb tsam hauv xyoo 2000s thiab kev tshawb nrhiav interstellar los ntawm 2020s.

Nws kuj tau kwv yees qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev sib txuas lus satellites los ntawm nruab nrab-80s, AI los ntawm 90s thiab Lub Tsev Qiv Ntiaj Teb los ntawm 2005. Nws ntseeg tias cov kws tshawb fawb yuav tsim cov roj teeb muaj txiaj ntsig hauv 70s thiab 80s, thermonuclear zog los ntawm 90s. thiab wireless zog los ntawm 2005.. Tsis tas li ntawd, los ntawm thaum ntxov 2000s, nws pom qhov tshwm sim ntawm exobiology (kev kawm ntawm lub neej nyob rau hauv qhov chaw), genetic cataloging, thiab genomics.

Tau kawg, tsis yog txhua qhov kev twv ua ntej tau tshwm sim, yam tsawg kawg tsis nyob hauv lub sijhawm uas nws tau thov. Tab sis txawm tias qhov twg nws tsis yog lawm, Clarke tau pom ntau yam tiam sis thiab cov xwm txheej uas thaum kawg yuav dhau los ua (lossis tab tom ua) qhov tseeb.

Cia peb xam seb qhov twg ntawm Clark qhov kev kwv yees tau ua kom raug.

Kev sib txuas lus satellite thiab Internet

Ib qho ntawm Clark qhov kev kwv yees ntxov tshaj plaws thiab qhov tseeb tshaj plaws yog tias kev sib txuas lus satellite yuav los ntawm kev foob pob hluav taws. Thawj sau tseg hais txog lub tswv yim no yog nyob rau hauv tsab xov xwm "Extraterrestrial Repeaters: Rocket chaw nres tsheb puas muab xov tooj cua thoob ntiaj teb?" Nws tau luam tawm thaum Lub Kaum Hli 1945 hauv Wireless World.

Nyob rau hauv tsab xov xwm, Clark tau piav qhia txog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob uas siv nyob rau hauv geostationary orbit (GSO) los xa xov tooj cua. Los ntawm 1957, thawj lub ntiaj teb dag satellite (Sputnik-1) nrog lub xov tooj cua onboard transmitter tau pib. Xyoo tom ntej, Tebchaws Meskas tau xa tawm thawj zaug kev sib txuas lus satellite raws li ib feem ntawm Kev Ua Haujlwm Score.

Los ntawm xyoo 1960, thawj lub lag luam kev sib txuas lus satellites tau tsim tawm hauv ntiaj teb, thiab los ntawm xyoo 1980, kev lag luam tau nthuav dav. Ntev ua ntej ntawd, Clark tau kwv yees txog kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib raug zoo thiab kev lag luam ntawm cov hnub qub ntawm kev sib txuas lus satellites hauv orbit. Nws qhia txog lub zeem muag no hauv 1964 BBC documentary Horizon, qhov uas nws tau piav qhia tias kev vam meej yuav zoo li cas hauv xyoo 2000:

Arthur Clarke

United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) tam sim no muaj 7,853 satellites nyob rau hauv orbit, raws li United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) online Performance index ntawm cov khoom launched rau sab nrauv. Raws li Lub Koom Haum Saib Xyuas Kev Ruaj Ntseg (UCS), uas suav nrog kev ua haujlwm satellites, 3,372 ntawm lawv tau ua haujlwm txij li Lub Ib Hlis 1, 2021.

Tus lej no yuav tsum tau loj hlob exponentially nyob rau hauv lub xyoo tom ntej, uas tau tsav los ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm satellite internet khw, CubeSat technology thiab pheej yig dua cov kev pab cuam. Arthur Clarke feem ntau tau txais txiaj ntsig nrog tsim kev sib txuas lus satellites. Piv txwv li, "Clarke Belt" yog hais txog lub xov tooj cua loj hauv GSO.

Arthur Clarke cov lus piav qhia ntawm kev sib txuas lus zoo sib xws hauv Is Taws Nem, txawm hais tias nws tau kwv yees nws ntau xyoo dhau los, xyoo 1974. Tom qab ntawd, thaum sib tham nrog ABC Xov Xwm, tus kws sau ntawv tau hais rau tus kws sau xov xwm Australian (thiab nws tus tub) txog yav tom ntej ntawm kev suav.

Ntawm cov mainframes, Clarke piav qhia tias lub khoos phis tawj yuav zoo li cas thaum tus neeg sau xov xwm tus tub tau los ua neeg laus:

Tsis tas yuav tos xyoo 2001. Txawm tias ua ntej, yuav muaj lub computer hauv nws lub tsev, tab sis tsis loj npaum li ntawd. Tsawg kawg, nws yuav muaj lub console uas nws yuav siv los sib txuas lus, tham nrog nws tus phooj ywg hauv lub computer thiab tau txais tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv nws xav tau hauv lub neej txhua hnub.

Arthur Clarke

Ua tsaug rau tus kheej lub khoos phis tawj (PCs), kev sib txuas hauv internet, huab xam, thiab kev tshawb fawb xyaw, cov neeg niaj hnub nyob hauv lub ntiaj teb yuav luag zoo ib yam li Clarke piav. "Compact Homes" khaws tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv ntiag tug peb xav tau, muaj lub tsev qiv ntawv thoob ntiaj teb, thiab peb muab cov khoom no tso cai.

Cov dav hlau dav hlau thiab cov dav hlau ua lag luam

Xyoo 2001 Space Odyssey tau nthuav tawm lub dav hlau chaw lag luam hu ua Pan American dav hlau tiag. Txawm hais tias lub tuam txhab tiag tiag tsis ua haujlwm hauv xyoo 1991, tus kws sau ntawv cov lus tau meej. Clarke tau kwv yees tias lub dav hlau dav hlau thiab chaw lag luam mus ncig yuav dhau los ua qhov tseeb ntawm lub xyoo pua.

Thaum ntxov xyoo 1970, txawm tias ua ntej qhov kawg ntawm Apollo qhov kev pab cuam, NASA tau xav txog nws txoj haujlwm tom ntej. Txhawm rau txo tus nqi ntawm qhov chaw mus ncig, lawv tau txiav txim siab los tsim lub tshuab tso tawm tshiab, ib nrab rov siv tau. Qhov no yog li cas lub chaw shuttle kev pab cuam tau yug los, uas ua haujlwm kom txog rau thaum kawg ntawm lawv tau decommissioned hauv 2011.

Lub USSR kuj tau tsim lub nkoj reusable orbital foob pob hluav taws, tab sis nws yeej tsis muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm mus tas li. Tom qab ntawd, cov kws tshawb fawb tau pib tsim cov dav hlau hauv qhov chaw xws li Boeing X-37, Chongfu Shiyong Shiyan Hangtian Qi los ntawm Tuam Tshoj (ib qho "kev sim rov siv dua qhov dav hlau") thiab Npau Suav Chaser los ntawm Sierra Nevada.

Tau kawg, cov kev pabcuam zoo li no tsis muaj nyob rau xyoo 2000, tab sis txawm tias tom qab ntawd muaj lus xaiv tias lawv yuav tshwm sim ib hnub. Nyob nruab nrab ntawm xyoo 2000 thiab 2004, peb lub tuam txhab loj ntawm kev lag luam niaj hnub no tau tshwm sim - Blue Origin, SpaceX thiab Virgin Galactic. Tag nrho cov ntawm lawv tau tsim nrog lub hom phiaj ntawm kev nthuav dav nkag mus rau qhov chaw los ntawm kev ua lag luam ntawm cov kev pabcuam xa tawm.

Thaum SpaceX thiab nws tus tsim, Elon Musk, tsom feem ntau ntawm kev txhim kho cov txheej txheem rov qab siv tau los hloov tib neeg mus rau "cov tsiaj sib txuas," Bezos thiab Branson tsim kev lag luam "chaw tourism".

Virgin Galactic tau ua nws thawj lub davhlau tag nrho thaum Lub Xya Hli 2021. Thiab tom qab ntawd, thaum Lub Xya Hli 20, 2021, Jeff Bezos tau ya mus rau hauv qhov chaw ntawm thawj tus neeg ua haujlwm uas siv lub New Shepard spacecraft.

Raws li Elon Musk, SpaceX yuav ua thawj tus neeg tsav dav hlau ntawm nws lub tsheb Starship rov siv tau los ntawm 2023. Ntawm nws, Japanese businessman thiab collector Yusaku Maezawa thiab xya lwm tus neeg yuav ya ncig lub hli.

Yog li, cov kev kwv yees tshwj xeeb no tsis tuaj yeem muaj tseeb hauv xyoo 1999 lossis xyoo 2001. Tab sis Clarke tau kwv yees cov qauv uas tshwm sim nyob ib puag ncig lub sijhawm ntawd. Niaj hnub no, kev lag luam chaw mus ncig yog qhov tseeb dua li kev npau suav.

Cov tshuab ntse

Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm 2001 Space Odyssey yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev txawj ntse HAL 9000 nyob rau hauv lub xyoo pua 21st. Hauv zaj duab xis, nws tau los ua ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm kev tshawb fawb thiab kev tshawb nrhiav chaw.

Qhov xwm txheej thiab txoj hmoo ntawm AI ntawm lub neej yav tom ntej tau tso lub cim tsis tuaj yeem ntawm cov kab lis kev cai nrov. Lub suab eerily soothing, lub qhov muag liab iconic, thiab yuav ua li cas HAL 9000 tua cov neeg ntoj ke mus ncig los ntawm kev kaw lub neej kev txhawb nqa - cov duab ntawm AI mus vwm tau tseem tsis hloov pauv hauv kev xav hauv pej xeem. Txawm tias tam sim no, xyoo 2021, Clark qhov kev kwv yees tias cov khoos phis tawj yuav dhau los ntawm tib neeg thaum lub sijhawm xyoo pua txhawj xeeb qee tus kws tshaj lij.

Tham txog qhov tshwm sim ntawm AI uas tiv nrog cov haujlwm nyuaj, Clark tau kwv yees kev txhim kho ntawm kev kawm tshuab. Qhov chaw ntawm kev tshawb fawb no tau tshwm sim tsuas yog ob peb xyoos ua ntej tso tawm cov yeeb yaj kiab thiab tshiab, A Space Odyssey.

Los ntawm 2021, supercomputers twb tau tshwm sim tias, zoo li HAL, tam sim no muaj peev xwm simulating tib neeg hais lus thiab txawm tias muaj kev cuam tshuam (piv txwv li, IBM Watson). Txawm li cas los xij, niaj hnub supercomputers tseem tsis muaj peev xwm ntawm kev xav lossis kev xav.

Clarke thiab Kubrick kuj xav txog HAL 9000 kom zoo ib yam hauv profile rau cov khoos phis tawj niaj hnub, uas coj mus rau tag nrho cov chav thiab muaj cov phab ntsa loj me me. Nyob nruab nrab ntawm xyoo 1960 thiab xyoo 1980, computers yuav tau me me. Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo pua nees nkaum, integrated circuits tau tshwm sim, uas coj mus rau txoj kev loj hlob ntawm tus kheej computers (PCs).

Yog li, thaum los ntawm 2000s muaj cov khoos phis tawj uas dhau txhua yam uas muaj nyob rau xyoo 1960, tib neeg tseem tsis tau tsim ib qho AI uas yuav tshaj tib neeg hauv txhua txoj kev.

Coj txawv txawv yav tom ntej

Ua ntej nws tuag, Arthur Clark tau tawm hauv ntiaj teb nrog ntau cov ntaub ntawv ntawm tib neeg lub neej yav tom ntej. Lub sijhawm dhau los, nws tau hloov kho qee yam ntawm nws cov haujlwm nto moo, feem ntau yog vim qhov tseem ceeb thiab cov peev nyiaj tau hloov pauv hauv lub sijhawm tom qab Apollo, nrog rau kev hloov pauv thev naus laus zis.

Tab sis, raws li Clarke nws tus kheej tau hais hauv cov lus tshaj tawm rau 2001 A Space Odyssey: "Nco ntsoov, qhov no tsuas yog qhov tseeb xwb. Qhov tseeb, raws li ib txwm muaj, yuav muaj ntau tus neeg txawv."

Thiab cov lus ntawm tus kws sau ntawv no tau muab 100% tseeb.